PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 438 14.0%
  • H1 2020

    Votes: 414 13.3%
  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,025 64.9%
  • H1 2021

    Votes: 99 3.2%
  • H2 2021

    Votes: 144 4.6%

  • Total voters
    3,120
#1
So the previous thread was locked and I decided to create a new one.

What's new? Microsoft made the first public move by actually announcing that they're working on their next console:



Amazing post by anexanhume in the previous thread a few weeks before E3 2018. Thanks to Socky by pointing it out:

I will try to construct a summary of the past few months. Others have hit on a few points already, but I’ll try to make it all self-contained.

Backwards compatibility
1. Sony has made comments that indicate that BC could be present in next gen.
2. There are roughly 5/6 patents with Cerny’s name attached that go into methods of altering how a processor works to enable backward compatibility with previous architectures.

CPU
1. AMD CEO Lisa Su has made comments as recent as last week that confirm Zen 2 is design complete and will sample this year, with high volume next year. This is both server and desktop versions.
2. We do not know if it will be manufactured in TSMC or Global Foundries’ 7nm.
3. We also don’t have much architecture insight into Zen 2. It is believed that CCX will go up to 6 cores in Zen 2, which means multiple CCX would be required for an 8 core console APU.
4. Someone posted Ryzen power consumptions vs. frequency graphs a few pages back that show that the power scales down quite nicely around the 3 GHz mark, supporting a 25-35W CPU TDP in a likely console APU budget.
5. LLVM (compiler) improvements have been spotted for Zen version 1 from a verified Sony SN Systems engineer. Zen 2 hasn’t been spotted yet, so it’s possible the design similarities or NDAs could explain this if Zen 2 is still the target.
6. I’ve spotted AVX512 commits from the same engineer. AVX512 is not currently supported on any AMD processor, but Zen supports AVX2 (256) by 2-cycling it’s 128 bit units. Jaguar had AVX support (128 bit wide). AVX really accelerates vector workloads and can be optimized to (and is more general purpose with more register space despite how general purpose GPUs have become), but it can be a big hit on die space and power consumption.
7. Zen 3 design is underway and is targeted 2020 in 7nm+ per current roadmaps. Adoption of this design would be very aggressive, even with a 2020 launch date. Of course, customizations are always possible, as seen with GPUs.

GPU
1. Vega is not expected to make it to consumers in 7nm at all. Strictly for the AI/compute/research crowd.
2. Navi is shown on AMD’s roadmap for 2019, though we have few details other than the focus is on scalability and it will be the last GCN iteration.
3. A patent for a “Super SIMD” design was recently discovered, and the concept sounds very similar to Nvidia’s latest designs. It’s unclear if this would be Navi or post-Navi.
4. Navi’s successor is 2020 per AMD roadmap, but would be very aggressive to include. Customizations are always possible, of course.
5. AMD has stated that they’ve brought some Zen designers over to the GPU team in the interest of improving efficiency, since Zen was a big step forward compared to excavator and piledriver. It’s unclear when we can expect to see the fruits of that effort.

APU
1. Known die scaling factors for 16nm to 7nm suggest that an 8 core Zen, 64 CU (Vega chips) could fit in an area around 350mm^2. This is where original Xbox One and PS4 APUs were at. Depending on clocks, this is a 10-14 TF GPU.
2. The idea of MCMs with GPU chiplets has been tossed around due to smaller die costing less, but the cost structures and Infinity Fabric penalties likely don’t make sense in a console budget.

Memory
1. GDDR6 will hit mass production this year and is being supplied by all major memory suppliers.
2. GDDR6 spec goes up to 18Gb/s per pin, and has been demonstrated up to 20Gb/s by Micron. This is on the order of 550GB/s for a 256-bit bus ( a la PS4 and Pro), or 770GB/s on a 384-bit bus (Xbox One X).
3. 384-bit bus is problematic from a cost standpoint because it necessitates at least 12 chips, and is a larger PCB. It also can keep the die size larger, which means it can’t be shrunk as much.
4. All three major manufacturers have been accused of price fixing, and pricing has relaxed a little lately. The crypto craze is also lessening demand as it tapers off. Lisa Su commented she believes the consumer aspect of this will dwindle.
5. HBM remains a possibility, but there are issues with cost, yield, testability, and access granularity according to industry trends and Microsoft’s insight from designing the Xbox One X. Cost could be near $100 higher than GDDR6 for a similar capacity solution according to an article I posted before. TSV and interposer are the cost drivers.
6. Micron recently became a HBM supplier, so that would help cost and availability some.
7. Current HBM timelines show HBM3 could be a possibility, but HBM2 would be more likely.
8. Capacity likely between 16-32 GB. GDDR6 or HBM could support these capacities. The solution could be anywhere from 8-16 chips in GDDR6 or 2-4 stacks in HBM.

Non-volatile storage
1. AMD’s HBCC has been getting some attention for its potential to act like a cache manager between main and non-volatile memory. This could allow for a modestly-sized NAND drive in the realm of 64-128GB where the OS and relevant game data can sit to reduce load times and enhance system responsiveness.
2. AMD claimed up to a 50% reduction in VRAM footprint using HBCC, but that’s yet to be realized in real-game benchmarks.
3. SSDs are finally reaching a $/GB level where they could be in the discussion for console usage. Perhaps multiple SKUs or replaceable drives, as seen in PS4.

Foundry Technology

1. TSMC and Global Foundries’ 7nm both would be ready for a 2019 launch.
2. 28nm had a 1+ year gap from HVM to console APUs, which is necessary from a cost, yield and throughout perspective given the larger die (mobile devices around ~100mm^2 tend to be first).
3. Current 7nm+ (EUV) timelines put TSMC ready for HVM within 2019. This could support a 2020 console, but would be very aggressive. The gains over 7nm are 10-15% performance/heat/shrink, but the processing is also easier due to fewer mask steps.

Timing
1. Sony has explicitly stated no hardware announcements at E3 this year.
2. Sony recently shared FY guidance that showed a huge profit hit in March 2021 (2020’s results). They purposefully did not disclose March 2020, so they obscured the exact launch date, but guaranteed 2019 or 2020.
3. Microsoft has been fairly quiet, but have made statements that show their investment in console gaming is still strong.
4. Sony has stated that PS4 has entered into the end of its life cycle, which matches with the above implications of the FY guidance indicating a launch within the next two years.

VR
1. There have been a ton of patents in VR with and without Mark Cerny’s name attached. Many relate to foveated rendering and other optimizations.
2. Sony has said that VR growth has fallen below industry expectations across the board, including them. They identified it as a growth area to improve upon, so they still seem fully invested and I expect PSVR2, as do most I think.

Operating system

1. The aforementioned Sony engineer’s name has turned up with regards to FreeBSD commits as well (recent versions). This could mean that their OS of choice for PS3 and PS4 could stick around as the basis for PS5.

Financial considerations

1. Sony showed an up to 400 million profit hit in their March 2021 results, which would be a 30% drop. They only dropped 1% with the launch of PS4. Given that the hardware and packaged software sales only make up 45% of their current revenue model, and that PS+ and digital comprise the rest and have been growing, some are taking this to mean Sony could be heavily subsidizing PS5 costs.
2. Launch price is assumed $400-$500. There are compelling cases for the entire range.
 
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#11
In terms of price and power, I see....

Xbox 2 Plus ($499) > PlayStation 5 ($399) > Xbox 2 Basic ($329)

I can see MS getting the jump on Sony and launching the Xbox 2 Basic several months earlier in March 2020. MS will leverage the greater power of the the Xbox 2 Plus to go toe-to-toe with the PS5 in November 2020.
 
#14
Great way to take a huge shit on your early adopters, even with it being a 'premium' price.
I’d assume both consoles would be revealed at the same time. The 499 being higher specced


I can imagine every Xbox one game being playable in 4K on Scarlet through Software implementation and brute force
 
#20
Late 2020 makes the most sense for Sony and MS because a lot of their sales are built on major AAA fall releases but if they have a handful of internal games ready and a bunch of impressive cross gen stuff I could maybe see the first half of the year.
 
#22
I see the announcements going like this...

MS announce the next-gen Xbox family of consoles next year at E3 2019
MS announce that the 'lower' sku of the family--the Xbox 2 Basic--for a Spring 2020 launch in March at E3 2019
Sony will have a PlayStation meeting in February 2020 to unveil that will have PS5 a release date in the holiday season of that year
Sony have a huge PS5 blow out showing for E3 2020
At E3 2020, MS announce the release date of the higher end sku that will compete directly with the PS5 in the 2020 holiday season
 
#23
In terms of price and power, I see....

Xbox 2 Plus ($499) > PlayStation 5 ($399) > Xbox 2 Basic ($329)

I can see MS getting the jump on Sony and launching the Xbox 2 Basic several months earlier in March 2020. MS will leverage the greater power of the the Xbox 2 Plus to go toe-to-toe with the PS5 in November 2020.
How to you departed these basic and plus models with the same APU 7nm tech?

Plus: ~13TFs
Basic: ???

You can’t make the Basic with C power when you are starting a new gen.

I don’t believe there is any possibility to launch two SKUs with different APUs until 5nm happens.
 
#24
How to you departed these basic and plus models with the same APU 7nm tech?

Plus: ~13TFs
Basic: ???

You can’t make the Basic with C power when you are starting a new gen.

I don’t believe there is any possibility to launch two SKUs with different APUs until 5nm happens.

I would imagine MS would do a combination of under clocking and using less CU cores in the Basic model for cost reasons. I also think they will use a bit less ram in the Basic model as well to further cut costs.
 
#28
I would imagine MS would do a combination of under clocking and using less CU cores in the Basic model for cost reasons. I also think they will use a bit less ram in the Basic model as well to further cut costs.
Another APU that will be close to Xbox One X APU in terms of power? 7-8 TFs?

That will only make the base development focus on this 7-8 TFs APU with less RAM and make the Plus hardware with 13 TFs be subutilized like Xbox One X.

You need your base model to be significantly more powerful than the old gen hardware... so you need your base to be at around 13TFs with the Plus model being significantly more powerful than the base mode... something like 20-25 TFs.

7nm can do that... that is why you won't see different SKUs in power.

People are overthinking the next-gen Xbox Family... that only means different SKUs for some components like HDD, Blu-ray, etc, etc... the APU/Power will be the same.
 
#29
Would it be worthwhile for Sony or Microsoft to do a Bluray-less set top box style variant of the PS4 or XB1 in 2020? Something cheap and ultra small. For example, a discless XB1X variant with 1 month free Game pass?
 
#30
After E3 with no major new game announcements - I think 2019 is definitely going to happen.

We were still getting new games announced in 2011. Not so much 2012. Then we got hw announcements early in 2013.
 
#34
March 2020. Easy.

1. Microsoft wants any head start
2. Switch proved March works
I also thought about H1 2020 for the Xbox because if the PS5 is releasing H2 2020, going head-to-head against Sony based on this current generation might be an even bigger risk than releasing it a few months earlier. Most of the people might think that both would launch during the same month because of what happened this gen, but this gen was the first time that both released during the same month. Releasing the "next gen" a year before Sony did worked for the Xbox 360.

Now that I think about it, based on the above, they could even release it H2 2019. I posted this a couple of days ago:

I see many people surprised. Xbox should probably be the first one interested in bringing the next console to the market whenever they can make that technological leap, especially if it has backwards compatibility, sharing the architecture with the X1; all of their currently announced and available games would be available on the next console from day 1. Second because this generation has not been as good for them as it has been for their competitors. Even Sony has said that PS4 is entering it's final phase as their main platform.


Anyway, if history is something to go by in video games, Microsoft mentioned Project Scorpio at E3 2016, and their next E3 conference in 2017 was all about it;

When we first heard of PS4, it was by the name "Orbis" in 2012. Less than a year later, Sony revealed the PlayStation 4 at the beginning of 2013;

The Xbox One, first known by the codename Durango, was first heard about in 2012. Well, one year later, the Xbox One was revealed;

When we first heard about PS4 Pro, it was under the name PS4 Neo, in 2016. Well, it took less than half a year to know what it was all about.

Based on the above, could we actually be less than a year away from the next Xbox's presentation?

If Sony is making a mention about a "next console/hardware" at E3, I'd say so. If they don't, I'd still say it's likely for the next Xbox, at least.
The question is how big would that technological leap be by H2 2019 - H12020 and at what price.

The Xbox 360 had 2 versions at launch: The Regular one at 499$ and the "Core" one at 399$, which only included Controller + Composite AV cables and the Xbox 360(no hard drive), but ironically, in the core they were still the same.

These were the 18 Xbox 360's launch titles


I'm not so sure.

What next gen games would be ready by then? I imagine devs would need more time.
For Xbox's current projects, we know about that Playground Games open world RPG that they're working on, we also know they purchased 3-4 new studios, I guess a Forza Motorsport game to show po-po-po-power and I think that's about it. Maybe a third party would already be working on a next-gen only launch title too?

Edit: I want to clarify, it might not be that Xbox 360 released "early", but that PS3 released "late" based on Microsoft's beliefs back then. After all, the 360 was only released 3-4 years after the OG Xbox, so maybe MS's thoughts back then was to releasing a new console every 4-5 years.
 
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#36
My bet for PS5 / Xbox Next.

- Zen2 CPU with 4 cores / 8 threads @ 3Ghz
- Navi GPU with 13-15 TFs
- 16GB GDDR6 RAM @ 576-640GB/s
- $399 price point

That will be the base development for exclusive next-gen games.
 
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#37
Most likely 2020, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess it could happen as early as Fall 2019.

PS5 launches with TLOU2, next Xbox launches with Gears of War 5. Mostly all the games will be super enhanced cross-gen stuff.
 
#38
I was fairly strongly 2020 until this E3, but it has changed my mind. 2020 is still a solid bet, but I'm not seeing anything to suggest 2019 is not a distinct possibility.

The (relative) explosion of rumour and chatter about next-gen in the last few months, not to mention several NG games actually being announced, suggests sooner rather than later to me - I'm getting 2012 vibes. None of the hardware milestones seem to require 2020 either, unless they hit snags or can't scale up production enough. A 2020 launch is 2-2.5 years away and we already know several NG titles in production. 2019 until something shows otherwise.

Also, can someone point the OP to Anexanhume's excellent NG reference post in the hope's he can add it to the OP? Cheers.
 
#39
Most likely 2020, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess it could happen as early as Fall 2019.

PS5 launches with TLOU2, next Xbox launches with Gears of War 5. Mostly all the games will be super enhanced cross-gen stuff.
Both will be remasters imo.

Halo Infinite will probably be cross-gen but TLOU2 and Gears 5 will release first on PS4/XB1 and remastered to PS5/NextXbox.
 
#42
My bet for PS5 / Xbox Next.

- Zen2 CPU with 4 cores / 8 threads @ 3Ghz
- Navi GPU with 13-15 TFs
- 16GB GDDR6 RAM @ ~700 GB/s
- $399 price point

That will be the base development for exclusive next-gen games.
Based on those specifications, what year are you betting on? IIRC, Zen2 will be releasing at the end of this year/Q1 2019 and Navi was still slated for a 2019 launch in the roadmap that AMD showed a couple of days ago.

I was fairly strongly 2020 until this E3, but it has changed my mind. 2020 is still a solid bet, but I'm not seeing anything to suggest 2019 is not a distinct possibility.

The (relative) explosion of rumour and chatter about next-gen in the last few months, not to mention several NG games actually being announced, suggests sooner rather than later to me - I'm getting 2012 vibes. None of the hardware milestones seem to require 2020 either, unless they hit snags or can't scale up production enough. A 2020 launch is 2-2.5 years away and we already know several NG titles in production. 2019 until something shows otherwise.

Also, can someone point the OP to Anexanhume's excellent NG reference post in the hope's he can add it to the OP? Cheers.
Would like to read and add that post. Hope someone links it.

In a change of pace, Sony will release PS5 in Spring 2020, and MS will release in the Holiday 2020.

Book it. :)
Playstation 5:

H1 2020
399.99€
You know, this is the big bet. What if Sony decided to be the one to release it earlier? Even if they release it at 499$, if the promise things like backwards compatibility(which they would promote as a "new" feature), patching PS4 games so they all run at 60FPS(by brute force in the case of some games?) or native 4K, etc + some original next-gen games like, maybe, an Horizon Zero Dawn sequel. That would be scary.

A H1 2020 PS5 launch with the above could be a pretty big advantage for Sony.
 
#43
Based on those specifications, what year are you betting on? IIRC, Zen2 will be releasing at the end of this year/Q1 2019 and Navi was still slated for a 2019 launch in the roadmap that AMD showed a couple of days ago.
I wanted to say November 2019 because that is what I wish... I bought my PS4 on day one here so it will be 6 years... a good time to replace for the next gen.

But I believe February 2020 is a better date.
 
#44
My bet for PS5 / Xbox Next.

- Zen2 CPU with 4 cores / 8 threads @ 3Ghz
- Navi GPU with 13-15 TFs
- 16GB GDDR6 RAM @ ~700 GB/s
- $399 price point

That will be the base development for exclusive next-gen games.
700 GB/s is not possible with 16GB of GDDR6 using a 256-bit bus. 500-550 is the realistic limit there.
 
#47
"As [next-gen] starts to become a reality, we'll be working with the engineers in Redmond and figuring it out. They'll be architecting it in the right way, like they did with the [Xbox One X]," said Sea of Thieves producer Joe Neate. "I have all the confidence in the world that [Microsoft is] going to make that transition as smooth as possible for everyone."

Neate says that he believes the transition to the Xbox One X serves as a good template for what he and other Xbox developers can expect when the next-gen Xbox comes out. "The transition to the X was as smooth as it gets. Normally when you go from console generation to generation, like, everything fucking changes and you have to rewrite everything."

However, based on the Xbox One X, Rare says the engineering team at Microsoft are "very forward thinking" when it comes to their hardware project. "I trust that team to get that part right and we'll do the Sea of Thieves part right and when the parts need to meet then they will," concludes Neate.
https://www.usgamer.net/articles/rare-transition-next-gen-xbox-microsoft
 
#48
The spec doesn’t go that high. 16 Gb/s is the max, and the 20 Gb/s Micron was touting was a simulated link, not any actual hardware.
It can go higher with the tech... Samsung already started mass production of 18 Gbps chips... 20 Gbps is a matter of time.

We are talking about the GDDR6 ti be used in 2019/2020.
 
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#49

Neate says that he believes the transition to the Xbox One X serves as a good template for what he and other Xbox developers can expect when the next-gen Xbox comes out. "The transition to the X was as smooth as it gets. Normally when you go from console generation to generation, like, everything fucking changes and you have to rewrite everything."
Hmmmm? That's interesting. I thought the CPU jump would be more significant this time around than previous generations. The Xbox One X's CPU is the same as the Xbox One S' CPU but at a higher frequency. Am I missing something or does this not sound right?
 
#50
I cannot see Sony or Microsoft releasing outside of the holiday window, I am guessing 2020 just because both of them pushed the mid cycle refresh. If I had to guess I would say Sony first, but Microsoft could be motivated enough to try to get in early. H2 2020.
 
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