PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 438 14.0%
  • H1 2020

    Votes: 414 13.3%
  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,025 64.9%
  • H1 2021

    Votes: 99 3.2%
  • H2 2021

    Votes: 144 4.6%

  • Total voters
    3,120
We know they aim to finalize specs two years prior to launch, so they’ll be locking it down within the next few months if it isn’t already.

They can change RAM amount or HD size, but the APU is going to be pretty much set given the effort to tapeout and validate a chip. This would be true even if they were going with discrete chips, but give them a little more flexibility.

We know Cerny has been on his tour of developers recently, which is exactly what he did in 2011 for PS4 specs. He seems even more ingrained with developers this time around, so I hope that means he’s really on the pulse of what’s holding them back. He served as a producer on Spider-Man and was actively pushing their tech team to enhance the world. Get your tubs ready.
I know it was Richard Leadbetter that said earlier this year that Mark Cerny was doing another dev tour but wonder if he actually meant recently? Surely when you are probing devs about what specs/features they would like in the next console you do this before you start to have the HW designed and made!? Especially if it is due to come out late next year.
 
You make my argument for me. + and cheaper are minimal argument. 7nm and gddr6 are available in 2019

2019 isnt rushed. 2020 is just delayed for no good reason. Why not wait till 2023? 2025? Sure hardware will be cheaper/better by then.

Like I said, the only real argument for 2020 is lack of leaks or lack of information as a whole. 2019 is much more likely with the info we have.
Lol. That's not a minimal argument. When Cerny had to design the PS4 he had a 400$ budget. Not 10 dollars more. It's going to be the same for PS5. They already have a budget, maybe 400$, 450$ or 500$.

The way I see it is simple: for about the same price Sony could only opt for 16GB if they go for 2019 but they could release a PS5 with 32GB in 2020. Really it's the most important decision Cerny will make, like it was the most important one he did for PS4 when he decided to go with 8GB.
 
I know it was Richard Leadbetter that said earlier this year that Mark Cerny was doing another dev tour but wonder if he actually meant recently? Surely when you are probing devs about what specs/features they would like in the next console you do this before you start to have the HW designed and made!? Especially if it is due to come out late next year.
We know Cerny started his tour of developers after the PS3 in 2009. There is another article that talks about the two year lockdown, but I can’t find it right now.

I’m sure he did a similar thing this time, only he’d also be able to talk about the Pro.
 
Is there a planned availability date for 4GB RAM chips? If they have to double the chips from 8 to 16 to get 32GB it would have a big knock-on effect wouldn't it? More complicated Motherboard, higher power consumption (so higher wattage PSU, bigger HSF)?

Personally it is moot for me as I doubt 32GB is happening irrespective of release date.

anexanhume said:
We know Cerny started his tour of developers after the PS3 in 2009. There is another article that talks about the two year lockdown, but I can’t find it right now.

I’m sure he did a similar thing this time, only he’d also be able to talk about the Pro.
Oh I remember him in his Gamelab talk about his 09/10 tour. I just remember Richard from DF making it sound like Mark had just done the tour again or was even in progress at the time of his video just a few months ago. I was remarking that that made no sense.

This may be the article you are looking for? https://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/meet-the-guy-who-engineered-the-playstation-4/
 
Last edited:
Is there a planned availability date for 4GB RAM chips? If they have to double the chips from 8 to 16 to get 32GB it would have a big knock-on effect wouldn't it? More complicated Motherboard, higher power consumption (so higher wattage PSU, bigger HSF)?

Personally it is moot for me as I doubt 32GB is happening irrespective of release date.



Oh I remember him in his Gamelab talk about his 09/10 tour. I just remember Richard from DF making it sound like Mark had just done the tour again or was even in progress at the time of his video just a few months ago. I was remarking that that made no sense.

This may be the article you are looking for? https://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/meet-the-guy-who-engineered-the-playstation-4/
Yeah, that addresses all the ones I was talking about. The 8GB of RAM comes up as well in other articles. I believe Adam Boyes talks about a dev being very adamant about wanting 8GB (I think Gearbox is suggested as the dev at one point), and this decision ultimately had to be approved by House.

They also talk about how Cerny was focused on the user experience, and what features would mean for users. That gives me hope we’ll get some sort of SSD cache.

Edit: here’s the RAM article: http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...ram-on-ps4-you-are-done-said-randy-pitchford/

People also forget Cerny was the Vita architect. The platform may have been poorly supported, but fans adore the platform, including myself. I’m still playing through Thomas Was Alone on mine. He has a great track record and listening to devs worked out for them last time, so hopefully we get a similar result this time around. I’m sure Sweeney has the ears of both Sony and MS.
 
People also forget Cerny was the Vita architect. The platform may have been poorly supported, but fans adore the platform, including myself. I’m still playing through Thomas Was Alone on mine. He has a great track record and listening to devs worked out for them last time, so hopefully we get a similar result this time around. I’m sure Sweeney has the ears of both Sony and MS.
I would have liked the Vita more if it wasn't so hamstrung by the design decisions on a hardware level. Missing buttons and proprietary memory cards killed it for me.
 
About the RAM, Tiago Sousa, then at Crytek, publicly called out both Sony and Microsoft about wanting 8GB RAM in April 2011: https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-the-making-of-crysis-2
Seems they had it from multiple sides then. Hopefully they get an earful if 16GB is deemed too little by devs. On a sadder note, it’s hard to believed what’s happened to Crytek this gen.

This is a bit of an older rumor, but this is still regarded as potentially true in the Anandtech Zen 2 discussion thread. Zen 2 could have an 8 core CCX with 32MB total L3. That would be tremendous for consoles.

Translation:
Don't repeat it to anyone, but AMD's 2nd Gen EPYC CPUs will have 64 cores, 256 MB (!) L3, 8x DDR4-3200 and 128 PCIe 4 lines.
 
Lol. That's not a minimal argument. When Cerny had to design the PS4 he had a 400$ budget. Not 10 dollars more. It's going to be the same for PS5. They already have a budget, maybe 400$, 450$ or 500$.

The way I see it is simple: for about the same price Sony could only opt for 16GB if they go for 2019 but they could release a PS5 with 32GB in 2020. Really it's the most important decision Cerny will make, like it was the most important one he did for PS4 when he decided to go with 8GB.
So those 16 GB would be around $100?

I can see Sony subsidyzing $50 and going for 24GB if that's the case. Matt already said we shouldn't expect crazy numbers for the RAM
 
So those 16 GB would be around $100?

I can see Sony subsidyzing $50 and going for 24GB if that's the case. Matt already said we shouldn't expect crazy numbers for the RAM
The RAM was estimated around $80 for PS4. That was 16 4Gb chips. 16Gb chips are available now, so they could achieve 16GB with half the number of physical chips (no clamshell). So RAM price would have to have doubled per chip for the RAM to cost more compared to PS4. This is why I think 16GB is low-balling what we’ll see.
 
The RAM was estimated around $80 for PS4. That was 16 4Gb chips. 16Gb chips are available now, so they could achieve 16GB with half the number of physical chips (no clamshell). So RAM price would have to have doubled per chip for the RAM to cost more compared to PS4. This is why I think 16GB is low-balling what we’ll see.
Nice. Thanks for the answer!
 
So those 16 GB would be around $100?

I can see Sony subsidyzing $50 and going for 24GB if that's the case. Matt already said we shouldn't expect crazy numbers for the RAM
It would be great to get a update or indication if anything has changed since he said that. Given how it has got slightly heated here re: 2019 or 2020 I suspect he'll keep away from the thread now....:(
 
Seems they had it from multiple sides then. Hopefully they get an earful if 16GB is deemed too little by devs. On a sadder note, it’s hard to believed what’s happened to Crytek this gen.

This is a bit of an older rumor, but this is still regarded as potentially true in the Anandtech Zen 2 discussion thread. Zen 2 could have an 8 core CCX with 32MB total L3. That would be tremendous for consoles.

Translation:
Don't repeat it to anyone, but AMD's 2nd Gen EPYC CPUs will have 64 cores, 256 MB (!) L3, 8x DDR4-3200 and 128 PCIe 4 lines.
Wow.32MB L3 is insane,I always thought we would end up with 16,which is excellent by itself.
Regarding CCX core count,months ago I guessed that would be the case (:

If this info is accurate,the future is very bright for next-gen's CPU's.
 
Wow.32MB L3 is insane,I always thought we would end up with 16,which is excellent by itself.
Regarding CCX core count,months ago I guessed that would be the case (:

If this info is accurate,the future is very bright for next-gen's CPU's.
I would guess 16MB to be the min, and they can always cut down the cache amount if they feel it won’t be used well. I think this is good news though in that Zen 2 is optimized for 4MB per core, so you have to change the design to remove cache. Changing the design to add cache is tougher. For example, if 16MB means more GPU CUs, I’ll take that trade. 16MB cache is 100 million transistors. I expect next gen APUs to be 10 billion plus, so it’s not a huge change, but it’s something to trade. They could perhaps get latency down by reducing cache size, but I don’t know that it would impact gaming workloads or not.

I always look back to the Intel CPUs that shipped with 128MB eDRAM and on-chip iGPU that performed better in gaming benchmarks with dedicated cards. It’s a shame they didn’t turn that into a gaming enthusiast line, but it shows there could be benefits.

https://techreport.com/review/28751/intel-core-i7-6700k-skylake-processor-reviewed/6
 
Last edited:
We know Cerny started his tour of developers after the PS3 in 2009. There is another article that talks about the two year lockdown, but I can’t find it right now.

I’m sure he did a similar thing this time, only he’d also be able to talk about the Pro.
The only thing I would say is that last time they had to really get the devs onside, we're talking devs booing Cerny at the start - there was A LOT of wrok Cerny had to do, not "just" talk to devs to help design the PS4.

This time round there should be (comparitively) less work to do in that devs are already on side and the architecture won't be a complete re-write (etc)
 
I would guess 16MB to be the min, and they can always cut down the cache amount if they feel it won’t be used well. I think this is good news though in that Zen 2 is optimized for 4MB per core, so you have to change the design to remove cache. Changing the design to add cache is tougher. For example, if 16MB means more GPU CUs, I’ll take that trade. 16MB cache is 100 million transistors. I expect next gen APUs to be 10 billion plus, so it’s not a huge change, but it’s something to trade. They could perhaps get latency down by reducing cache size, but I don’t know that it would impact gaming workloads or not.

I always look back to the Intel CPUs that shipped with 128MB eDRAM and on-chip iGPU that performed better in gaming benchmarks with dedicated cards. It’s a shame they didn’t turn that into a gaming enthusiast line, but it shows there could be benefits.

https://techreport.com/review/28751/intel-core-i7-6700k-skylake-processor-reviewed/6
Question is,how much die space is being saved by say,using only 1 Zen 2 CCX for 8C/16T..are we still getting that magic 32MB L3 cache number? Is it possible that this design choice can get them a CPU die that is even smaller than the 2 Jaguar CCX of this gen?
 
What we know is that Spencer talker at e3 about scarlet we know that they show next halo engine ....we know that at the same e3 Sony didn't show any new game , we know that Sony will not do psx this year ...and we know that theres an hit in their forecast earnings in the 2020 fiscal year ....we know that Matt hinted at 2019...

And yeah 2019 is wishful thinking /s
Oh cmon
 
I would have liked the Vita more if it wasn't so hamstrung by the design decisions on a hardware level. Missing buttons and proprietary memory cards killed it for me.
People shit on the memory card pricing but it’s the reason they were able to launch at $250. People were expecting it to be $400 based on the tech inside and the screen.
 
Question is,how much die space is being saved by say,using only 1 Zen 2 CCX for 8C/16T..are we still getting that magic 32MB L3 cache number? Is it possible that this design choice can get them a CPU die that is even smaller than the 2 Jaguar CCX of this gen?
I doubt it will be smaller, especially if Zen 2 doubles the AVX path width to 256 bit. Jaguar was a native 28nm design, and Zen 2 is a native 7nm design, so it makes sense they’d target similar footprints as their predecessors.
 
Lol. That's not a minimal argument. When Cerny had to design the PS4 he had a 400$ budget. Not 10 dollars more. It's going to be the same for PS5. They already have a budget, maybe 400$, 450$ or 500$.

The way I see it is simple: for about the same price Sony could only opt for 16GB if they go for 2019 but they could release a PS5 with 32GB in 2020. Really it's the most important decision Cerny will make, like it was the most important one he did for PS4 when he decided to go with 8GB.
You’re pulling numbers from your ass.

32gigs isn’t going to be magically 100$ cheaper the following year.

Or $200 cheaper in 2021, or 2022 etc etc

I think Most people are wrong about the type of memory they are using anyhow
 
What we know is that Spencer talker at e3 about scarlet we know that they show next halo engine ....we know that at the same e3 Sony didn't show any new game , we know that Sony will not do psx this year ...and we know that theres an hit in their forecast earnings in the 2020 fiscal year ....we know that Matt hinted at 2019...

And yeah 2019 is wishful thinking /s
Oh cmon
Official price drop for PS4 Pro in Japan which seems to even happened in the west soon. Much closer to PS4 Slim price which may indicate Slim model will be phased out and PS5 is on the way.
 
This is a bit of an older rumor, but this is still regarded as potentially true in the Anandtech Zen 2 discussion thread. Zen 2 could have an 8 core CCX with 32MB total L3. That would be tremendous for consoles.
That's a lot of L3 cache. Hopefully that will help alleviate pressure on the memory bandwidth a bit. A single 8-core CCX solution probably would have fewer redundant blocks than a 2 4-core CCX solution, too. Probably not a lot of silicon saved there, but every bit counts.
 
People shit on the memory card pricing but it’s the reason they were able to launch at $250. People were expecting it to be $400 based on the tech inside and the screen.
I doubt that's true at all. lol. The only reason they went with proprietary memory cards was because of the rampant piracy during the PSP's lifecycle.
 
That's a lot of L3 cache. Hopefully that will help alleviate pressure on the memory bandwidth a bit. A single 8-core CCX solution probably would have fewer redundant blocks than a 2 4-core CCX solution, too. Probably not a lot of silicon saved there, but every bit counts.
Things will just lay out better if the 8 cores are designed to be together as opposed to have boundaries between them. The bandwidth is a good point though. PS4 benchmarks show the effective bandwidth to GPU is greatly diminished when the CPU needs some bandwidth of its own.
 
Official price drop for PS4 Pro in Japan which seems to even happened in the west soon. Much closer to PS4 Slim price which may indicate Slim model will be phased out and PS5 is on the way.
a PS4 Pro price drop does not indicate the best selling PS4 model being phased out.
 
Official price drop for PS4 Pro in Japan which seems to even happened in the west soon. Much closer to PS4 Slim price which may indicate Slim model will be phased out and PS5 is on the way.
If anything will be phased out it would be Pro once PS5 with full BC is revealed.
We will definitely get 7nm ~ $200 super slim PS4 for budget buyers.
 
Question is,how much die space is being saved by say,using only 1 Zen 2 CCX for 8C/16T..are we still getting that magic 32MB L3 cache number? Is it possible that this design choice can get them a CPU die that is even smaller than the 2 Jaguar CCX of this gen?
32MB cache will be way overkill. For general desktop use Zen's current 16MB already kind of is. It's mostly there to compensate for all the cross-die communication that happens in Epyc/Threadripper. AMD even halved the L3 on Raven Ridge and it had barely any effect on performance compared to Summit Ride with four cores disabled while keeping all the cache intact.
It wouldn't suprise me if they were to go for 4MB/CCX for the next consoles.
 
So those 16 GB would be around $100?

I can see Sony subsidyzing $50 and going for 24GB if that's the case. Matt already said we shouldn't expect crazy numbers for the RAM
I can’t inagine 16GB would cost Sony $100 in 2019. That’s the same 8GB cost them in 2013 and 8GB certainly can’t cost much more than $40-$60 today for PS4 as they’ve reduced costs a lot. They aren’t selling those $200-$250 limited time slim sales at $50+ losses.

I would think 24GB would cost $100 for Sony, factoring in discounts they get for doing a bulk order and potential to order 50-100M devices with it
 
Official price drop for PS4 Pro in Japan which seems to even happened in the west soon. Much closer to PS4 Slim price which may indicate Slim model will be phased out and PS5 is on the way.
Yeah no.

They will want ps5 to look like a huge jump. That will be more effective with the general consumer if they’re doing from PS4 to ps5, not pro

Alternatively, if were throwing out guesses they could be trying to sell Pro units now so they can discount it and act like it didn’t exist closer to ps5 launch in 2019 or 20.

They stand to make a lot of profit off a 7nm super slim model even at $199 if they ever go that low
 


Hum...sounds like MS'll talk about Scarlet in some capacity ?
Part of me thinks that Xbox might have come to terms with never reaching much more than 7-10M sales per year and they’re willing to sacrifice a few Xbox sales this year to get the gaming culture behind Xbox 2, a la 360’s aggressive 2005 reveal.

They could dominate the conversation early if done right. Idk if that will happen but it’s posisble I guess.
 
Part of me thinks that Xbox might have come to terms with never reaching much more than 7-10M sales per year and they’re willing to sacrifice a few Xbox sales this year to get the gaming culture behind Xbox 2, a la 360’s aggressive 2005 reveal.

They could dominate the conversation early if done right. Idk if that will happen but it’s posisble I guess.
the smart play would be, if its ready, to reveal the next xbox and the streaming app, and say the app will run on xb1/x. ms has never made money on hardware, so oif the streaming stuff doesnt need unique hardware, let people use hardware they have.
 
Does new Xbox really need to come out in 2019 while Live and GP subscriptions are up? Does it make sense to give the traditional weight to console unit sales icw subscription services now taking more prominent role?

/noob question
 
So can either MS or Sony afford to wait until 2020 if Google is such threat (they have console HW coming too)?
It is all about not being left behind and not allowing Google to get any ground. If Google can pull off streaming, they would have a huge advantage with an initial foothold, offering it through GoogleChrome the most popular bowser(PC and Android) in the world gives them a huge potential market. When you use Google it encourages you to download Chrome, imagine them also encouraging GoogleCloudGaming subscription.
MS and Sony do have their advanatges due to already having studios, close ties with third parties, strong hardware bussiness but they can’t stay still.
 
Top