PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 438 14.0%
  • H1 2020

    Votes: 415 13.3%
  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,025 64.9%
  • H1 2021

    Votes: 99 3.2%
  • H2 2021

    Votes: 144 4.6%

  • Total voters
    3,121
So about those next gen 3rd party games already deep into development I had mentioned........*thinking emoji*
You mean Bethesda's? They stated that they are designing the games without any dev kits. This is similar to what Squaresoft did with FFX, which they started making without a PS2. FFX ended up getting cut down a lot and lost its airship because the hardware was not as good as they planned for.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
You mean Bethesda's? They stated that they are designing the games without any dev kits. This is similar to what Squaresoft did with FFX, which they started making without a PS2. FFX ended up getting cut down a lot and lost its airship because the hardware was not as good as they planned for.
I mean one literally just leaked lol
 
That's not how you grow an industry though. Major companies like Microsoft and Sony (as well as Apple, Google and Amazon who always get brought up as possible future competitors) don't get involved to be happy with the size of the industry as it is.
Lowering the barrier of entry to gaming will inevitably bring new consumers to the market. That could be more casual players as you say. It may also be hardcore players who can't afford multiple full cost consoles. If you were a PS5-owner but were really keen to play that new Halo game that is getting rave reviews then instead of spending $500 on a new Xbox console you could pay a fraction of that for a streaming box.
Also, your comments seem to assume that the only way to access the games on these would be through a subscription. I don't think that is necessarily the case. It might be, but I can't see why you couldn't just buy the new Rockstar game and stream it to your box.
Yes,i know,of course they all want expansion of the game business.I just think potential streaming user base will be very,very limited.

As i mentioned in one of the previous posts,casual mobile market is huge but it's fully F2P now.It makes money on whales,99% of mobile gamers don't want to spend any money.These people are not gonna suddenly start paying for some streaming subscriptions en masse.
 
(Nebulous) launch window of the new machines is looking pretty good: Starfield, Wizarding World, Halo: Infinite, Fable reboot, whatever-the-next-Bioshock-is, Cyberpunk. Even if some or all of these are cross-gen, it's looking very healthy.
 
MS don't have the luxury of time? Is that a reference to Sony going 2019? Or of Google's service?
Microsoft are trying to enter the streaming market as a brand because it's a potential threat : Google use a Windows build of Assassin's Creed Odyssey to stream it in Chrome. One Windows Server license can run multiple session of ACO... to deliver how many Chrome clients ? Tomorrow a Google Stream app could ends up on two billions Android devices (TV, Chromecast) and to external services providers (mobile/net/tv etc.).

The same for Nividia GeForce Now hosted on Tesla servers, the same with Capcom RE7 for Switch : no one needs Microsoft as a service company to stream Windows content but only as a software company for Windows Server - and clients delivered do not need any Microsoft software at all. Sure that MS are powerful web services provider, they are also in a unique position on the software side. But on the streaming market they are in competition with anyone.

And due to the parity between Xbox/Windows for Microsoft publishing activities, even MS exclusives are streamable for anyone who rent a Windows virtual machine. While a third-party can't reasonably offer a proper and economically sustainable Nintendo/Sony streaming offer (client is linked to physical hardware, only the OS owner knows how to deploy it on a server), it's easy for any Windows content.
 
Last edited:
So, the plan for Xbox would be:

2019: the streaming device

2020: the next xbox

Sounds about right. Showing both at the same time would just confuse people.
I think showing them a year apart will confuse people even further. People will think the streaming box is the Xbox Two.

I think casuals will be confused regardless. A potential Wii U scenario
 
I guess MS can announce their streaming platform at next month's event,but only for PC/Mobile and only with the current XBO/360/OG library without next-gen games,and over the next 2 years they can stabilize the service and improve it,then announce their next gen streaming box for next gen games alongside a full fledged next-gen machine.
 
So lets say hypothetically you sell 20 million $99.99 Xbox Thin Clients. And three-quarters of owners paying month-to-month are up to date paying their $19.99/mo subscription at any given time during the first 12 months of ownership. And the rest of your users buy a $89.99 annual subscription. That's $3.6 billion in the first year of ownership. And your maximum concurrent users is around 3 million. That gives you $1200 per maximum concurrent user per year. And lets say without the need for individual packaging, and retail mark-up you can produce a 1U server box with two Xbox Scarlet boards in it for $700, and annual up keep/services run you $200/1u. That nets you $750 per Xbox Thin-Client sold within one-year of ownership, or 13-15 months if you throw in a 1-3 month free subscription with each box.

This is assuming you manage your servers intelligently (I.E. powering them down when they aren't in use), and like Microsoft you already own a bunch of server farms. Heck, Microsoft could probably find some way to double sell the Xbox Scarlet servers. Use them for high performance computer applications or machine learning BS.
Those numbers are a pipe dream. 20M in a year, of which 75% pay a $20 monthly subscription? And the other 25% a $90 yearly one? So 100% have to pay extra? Tha tdoesn't make any sense.

Only the real hardcore will pay $20 a month, and a $99 machine is a casual's machine.
 
Those numbers are a pipe dream. 20M in a year, of which 75% pay a $20 monthly subscription? And the other 25% a $90 yearly one? So 100% have to pay extra? Tha tdoesn't make any sense.

Only the real hardcore will pay $20 a month, and a $99 machine is a casual's machine.
Yeah. So in the first year these casuals who don't want to fork out for a PS4 have already spent more then one costs? Lol.
 
So, the plan for Xbox would be:

2019: the streaming device

2020: the next xbox

Sounds about right. Showing both at the same time would just confuse people.
I don't think so. They'll launch the streaming Xbox device alongside the traditional next gen Xbox, November 2020.

Halo Infinite, Forza Motorsport 8 - Cyberpunk 2020 will be among the headliners at launch.

Fable will be out in 2021.
 
Damn just saw the HP leak.

Ok so if it's 2020, and its a current gen game, then next gen can't launch in 2019, but if it's a 2020 game and it's next gen then next gen can launch in 2019 FY no problem, giving time for the install base to grow.

Also if it's a H1 2020 game then next gen has to launch before or alongside that.

People wanted leaks and leaks are coming! So what events are coming?
PGW at the end of October, XO 18 beginning of November and TGA beginning of December...anything else?

I think we'll get plenty of news+leaks before the end of the year, and specially after Black Friday
 
I don't think so. They'll launch the streaming Xbox device alongside the traditional next gen Xbox, November 2020.

Halo Infinite, Forza Motorsport 8 - Cyberpunk 2020 will be among the headliners at launch.

Fable will be out in 2021.
I don't know about launching together but I think announcing them together is a good idea. Keeps the messaging clear. Especially after the fiasco leading up to the One launch.
 
I don't know about launching together but I think announcing them together is a good idea. Keeps the messaging clear. Especially after the fiasco leading up to the One launch.
Yeah, I agree. They should. But why announce it next month, just 2 weeks bfr BF, and sabotage your own sales??

Jez doesn't make any sense...
 
Yeah, I agree. They should. But why announce it next month, just 2 weeks bfr BF, and sabotage your own sales??

Jez doesn't make any sense...
I don't think they'll announce .

But if they do it's because they are super committed to next gen and are playing hardball or whatever.

These last couple of years of this gen probably don't factor in to their plans too much and they won't be upset about losing a few sales if they can shape the next-gen narrative in their favour.
 
So, the plan for Xbox would be:

2019: the streaming device

2020: the next xbox

Sounds about right. Showing both at the same time would just confuse people.
I don't think it makes sense to launch the streaming box before the actual console assuming that the box is targeting next-gen specs. It would be too weird to launch the device that most people would be hesitant about before the traditional console. Unless the streaming box is something quite unique and separate to the console.
 
That's partly due to other aspects of the CPUs being improved, right? If the 7nm PS5 has a 3GHz Zen 2, is it possible that a 5nm or 3nm PS5 Pro could hit 4GHz?
One of the major reason that frequencies isn’t increasing is that interconnect delays can no longer decrease. Copper replaced aluminum due to aluminum’s speed limitations, but copper has to be encased in a layer of tantalum nitride so that it doesn’t interact with the silicon chemically. As wire dimensions increase, the ratio of the copper diameter to the diffusion and coating layer thickness becomes deleterious to the point that the copper wire width becomes so small that the resistance is too much to overcome. We’re also to the point where the dimensions are so thin that the threat of electromigration again becomes appreciable.

Intel tries to solve this issue with cobalt replacing copper entirely not needing the same liner, whereas most have just moved to a cobalt liner which can be thinner than a TaN one. Ruthenium has also been proposed to replace copper, but it has its own manufacturability issues.

So yes, transistors are getting faster, but the interconnects simply can’t without big material advances. One of the solutions is to reduce the length of the interconnect. You do that by moving things as close as possible, but I/O tend to be really long even if you crunch the individual transistors closer together. Stacking components and even FETs will help, but those technologies are slowly emerging as well.

https://semiengineering.com/dealing-with-resistance-in-chips/
 
Top