US PoliERA 2018 |OT9| Next week has been EXHAUSTING

I mean it actually wouldn't be that hard to hire 10 people and call through the entire state of ND (or at least a very good sample size).
It absolutely is. There’s a 3% response rate and there’s no voter file so you can’t even winnow the people down to registered voters! You just have to throw darts at every cell phone number in North Dakota. It’s expensive. That’s why no major pollsters do it.

But also DFM continues to hint at a closer race

 
No.

All robo polling is illegal in North Dakota. You have to manually type in every number. You cant even do an auto dial. And the state has no voter registration or voter rolls so you can’t cross check past voter history.

You have to do live interview polls in Indiana poll there you can do a robo dial. Look at all the calls Siena is doing. Imagine if they had to have someone dialing the numbers for every. Single. Call.
I'm sorry but any mention of an autodialer leads me to this -



I mean, I don't think the "not teaching at Harvard in the Spring" story is a big deal, since these justices dedicate their lives to being on the bench, unless Breyer and Alito have a bakery I don't know about.
The thing about teaching at an Ivy League, and Harvard in particular, is that they rarely tenure anyone. Their contracts are usually per semester because they try to recruit tons of people that are deemed experts in their field in order to offer constant prestige on a rolling basis. It's honestly a huge draw for people, both students and instructors, as you can gain a nice year or two on your resume as an instructor and students constantly get new blood. Thus, it seems like a huge blow for Harvard not to ask you back but it's actually extremely common. Of course, this still makes for a nice bit of news.
 
OT10: The Ballad of Bart O'Kavanaugh

In the middle of a pub, in the land of Mary
Lives a drunk little justice whom we all would ferry
With his long history of alleged ill deeds,
He lives in the bog of belligerence weeds.

Bart O, Bart O'Kavanaugh
He's never blacked out, Hic!
Bart O, Bart O'Kavanaugh
The angriest justice of them all-Hic!
 
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It absolutely is. There’s a 3% response rate and there’s no voter file so you can’t even winnow the people down to registered voters! You just have to throw darts at every cell phone number in North Dakota. It’s expensive. That’s why no major pollsters do it.

But also DFM continues to hint at a closer race

Alright yeah I hear you. It's difficult to make 100-200 calls in a day (that honestly is going to hugely depend on the compensation). You'd need a huge group of good people to get a good sample quickly.
 
I am so fucking tired of the "Vote no for Proposition 112" ads in Colorado. I saw a plane towing a "Save jobs, vote no on 112" today. Every other ad is either about how shitty Jared Polis is and Walker Stapleton is the savior of the state or how 112 will set Colorado back to the Stone age.

/Rant
 
Trump's quote about never drinking was pretty good today.
|OT10| "Can you imagine what a mess I'd be?"

I also don't believe for a second he's never had a beer or wine or champagne. Dude would do it in a second just to look elite.
 
The thing about teaching at an Ivy League, and Harvard in particular, is that they rarely tenure anyone. Their contracts are usually per semester because they try to recruit tons of people that are deemed experts in their field in order to offer constant prestige on a rolling basis. It's honestly a huge draw for people, both students and instructors, as you can gain a nice year or two on your resume as an instructor and students constantly get new blood. Thus, it seems like a huge blow for Harvard not to ask you back but it's actually extremely common. Of course, this still makes for a nice bit of news.
I can corroborate this. Most are adjuncts and tenure is VERY rare at Harvard. On the brightside, adjuncts get paid decently there. If there's one thing I learned about Harvard, it's that it's great to work for Harvard, but it absolutely sucks to work at Harvard.

It's almost like that school is a nexus for a lot of the bad shit in my life.
 

Box of Kittens

Resettlement Advisor
Member
The difficulty with a sparsely polled race like ND-Sen (aside from the other issues mentioned with polling ND) is that normally you'd be able to look at the aggregate to put a single poll in context but with so little polling a single poll has a pretty big pull on the aggregate. All you can really say is don't ignore it, don't unskew it, but be aware that it's just one poll.
 

B-Dubs

Oh well, what the hell
Administrator
That's Merv Griffin, he created Jeopardy. I don't think he ever hosted, though. This looks like a Golden Girls episode, so I'm sure there's a reason for him being there.
I was born in 1990, I barely know what Golden Girls is. I just love the scene.
 
Aight, I go into work at 2, cook a hundred something salmons and then look back and we got 19 new pages. What’s the skinny? Got good polls I see, anything else?
Brett Kavanaugh threw ice at a guy named Dudley in a bar when he was at Yale because he thought the guy was the lead singer of UB40 (?). Dudley and Kavanaugh got into fisticuffs and there's a police report on it.
 
I was born in 1990, I barely know what Golden Girls is. I just love the scene.
Yo, like, I was born in 86, but my grandma, dad, and I watched Golden Girls every weekend during my custody weekends. And this spring my girlfriend and I went through the whole show on Hulu.

You owe it to yourself to learn about St. Olaf, Big Daddy, and "Sicily, 1927".
 
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